In this study lead by Chen and Bibby, a model-based framework was used to predict the likelihood of detecting Monkeypox in wastewater under various circumstances (e.g., detection limits; wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) flow rates). Authors estimated the distributions of Monkeypox DNA wastewater concentrations based upon prior shedding reports and use Monte Carlo to estimate the probability of detection. Due to their lower median per capita wastewater flow rates, the UK, Spain, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) showed to have higher likelihoods of detecting Monkeypox in wastewater compared to the US. The study also aimed to develop a strategy to select the optimal number of replicate PCR assays based on expected case rates. This model highlights the important factors – decreased WWTP flow rate, increased replicate number, and decreased process limit of detection (PLOD) - necessary for improved wastewater detection of Monkeypox.
Model-Based Theoretical Evaluation of the Feasibility of Using Wastewater-Based Epidemiology to Monitor Monkeypox
Originally published by germlab.nd.edu on September 13, 2022.at